Abbott, Talarico leading, races no longer considered solid Republican

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(The Center Square) – Several new polls show that Gov. Greg Abbott and state Sen. James Talarico are leading in their respective races for governor and U.S. Senate. 

A new University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rating also downgraded both races, indicating neither are no longer considered solidly Republican. It adjusted Texas’ U.S. Senate race from “leans Republican” to a “toss up” and the governor’s race from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican.”

This is after the Cook Political Report adjusted its ratings for both races, also stating the U.S. Senate race was a “toss-up” and the governor’s race “leans right” instead of solidly Republican, The Center Square reported.

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is trailing Democrat state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, by up to 11 points, according to recent polls. Paxton “emerging from the Republican runoff was hardly a scenario that national GOP strategists were enthusiastic about, and the general election campaign he’s run has done little to dispel the concerns some in his party had long harbored,” the center states.

“Of course, Texas is a steep climb for any Democrat. Many undecided voters may ultimately hold their noses for and vote for Paxton,” the center adds. “But Paxton’s favorability has been underwater in nearly every survey, and he’s underperforming his own party’s base support in several polls.” 

It also points to the fact that Paxton hasn’t been able to raise money compared to Talarico’s campaign raising a record $30 million in the last quarter.

“The Texas Senate race features a flawed Republican, a well-funded Democrat, and a national environment that could be as favorable to Democrats as what 2018’s was – or, perhaps more so. Putting these pieces together, we’re moving Texas Senate from Leans Republican to Toss-up,” the center said. “We really thought we’d keep this race at Leans Republican through November, but with the election still a couple of months away, we think there’s enough uncertainty to call it a Toss-up for now.”

A new Texas Public Opinion Research poll has Talarico leading Paxton by six points, 48% to 42% and leading among independents by 21 points. 

The Center for Politics, although downgrading the gubernatorial race, said that Abbott running for an unprecedented fourth term “remains the likely winner.” It cites his “huge war chest” and favorability rating but notes that “Abbott might not win as comfortably as he did in his past campaigns,” pointing to multiple recent polls showing the race is in single digits. It’s the closest race of his political career, The Center Square reported. In previous races, Abbott won by more than 20 points. 

The center points to two key issues upsetting voters. One is widespread backlash to data center expansion that has occurred under Abbott due to tax breaks and other incentives he and the legislature created. Just last November, Abbott touted Texas as the “epicenter” of AI development when Google announced a $40 billion AI investment in Texas, The Center Square reported. In the last month, Abbott issued directives to temporarily halt data center development and ensure greater regulatory oversight, which critics argue isn’t enough. 

The other is widespread bipartisan opposition to the Trump administration border wall and barrier construction in the Big Bend region of Texas. Abott has been largely silent on the issue, only recently taking credit for the administration claiming it wasn’t building a border wall in the Big Bend National Park or a state park. 

“The episode is notable because opposition to the border infrastructure didn’t come exclusively from Democrats or environmental groups,” the center said, pointing to west Texas sheriffs, landowners, and Republican officials who oppose the construction. The administration only recently succumbed to pressure largely from local Republicans, stating it would halt construction in Big Bend National Park, The Center Square reported. Multiple lawsuits are ongoing.

“As with the data center fight, Abbott had to navigate tensions within his own coalition rather than simply rallying Republicans against Democrats,” the center said.

It also points to a third factor, stating, “Abbott might be ‘wearing out his welcome’” by seeking a fourth term. “Incumbency fatigue … could be contributing to a closer-than-usual result. Accordingly, we’re moving Texas Governor from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.”

The TPOR poll shows Abbott leading Hinojosa by seven points, 49% to 42%.  

A new Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University poll shows that in three south Texas congressional districts where Republicans are trailing Democrats, Hinojosa is leading Abbott by between 3 and 4 points. It also shows Talarico leading Paxton by between 8 and 11 points. It also found that Republicans who responded to the survey said they were voting for Democratic candidates in November.

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll has Abbott leading Hinojosa by five points, 45% to 40%, among likely voters, The Center Square reported. It has Talarico leading Paxton by three points, 42% to 39%. It also shows that President Donald Trump has lost favorability with Texas voters.