Home sales slip in July as prices climb for 37th month

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(The Center Square) – U.S. existing-home sales fell 1.7% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million even as prices climbed again, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The median existing-home price hit $434,100 in July, up 2% from a year earlier and the 37th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. Mortgage rates, meanwhile, have moved higher.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 6.69% the week of Aug. 6, above the 6.63% of a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac. Rates had run below year-ago levels for much of the spring, when falling borrowing costs helped lift sales.

"Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, adding that the market "would be thriving if average mortgage rates were to return near 6%."

NAR's housing affordability index registered 103.3 in July, up from 98.3 a year earlier, although that reading largely predates the rate increase. First-time buyers made up 29% of sales, down from 33% in June. Inventory stood at 1.54 million units, a 4.6-month supply and still below the six months generally considered a balanced market.

Leading indicators point to a softer second half. Newly pending listings, which track homes going under contract, were up just 0.3% from a year earlier and down 7.7% from June, according to Zillow's July market report, a sign the summer's sales may not carry into fall.

The cooling comes despite federal efforts to ease housing costs. In January, President Donald Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to lower rates, and NAR reported the 30-year rate fell to 5.99% the day after. Congress in June passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, a supply-focused overhaul. Rates have since risen and inventory remains below a balanced market.

Trump has pressed the Fed to cut its benchmark rate, saying the U.S. "should have the lowest interest rate in the world." The central bank held steady in July, with three officials pushing instead for a hike.

NAR cut its 2026 forecast for existing-home sales growth from 14% to 4% in April, citing rising mortgage rates. Through July, sales were running up just 2.4% from a year earlier, below even the lowered estimate.

The typical monthly mortgage payment on a U.S. home was about $1,888 in July, according to Zillow, still slightly below a year earlier, but an edge the company expects to vanish as higher rates take hold. The result is a market where prices keep climbing, a 37th straight month of year-over-year gains, even as fewer homes change hands.